Catastrophic Thinking, using CAVEAT, requires the realization that the risk of catastrophes is NOT too rare to worry about or plan for. Even excluding catastrophes of war, there is a high probability or risk that something bad will happen. These are black swan events.

Catastrophic Thinking, using CAVEAT, requires that we THINK BACK. The Bible is collected wisdom looking back. It is also the go-to book for catastrophism.

Catastrophic Thinking, using CAVEAT, requires policies to be grounded in true or pure science. It is important to be able to spot “bad” science. Bad science is usually found by “Following the science.”

Catastrophic Thinking, using CAVEAT, is an outline of thinking I have developed since the sixth grade by asking the question, could I survive? It was inspired by reading the book A Night to Remember, by Walter Lord.

Catastrophic Thinking uses CAVEAT, which is simply a mnemonic device to always use Catastrophic Assumptions, Values, and Expectations in Analysis and Thinking in policy formation. An example is when the Pharoah realized the Israelites were essential to Egypt’s recovery from the plagues.

Catastrophic Thinking, using CAVEAT, will train the practitioner of thought processes to think with ten or more minds, looking at a problem from all perspectives. It helped me to understand how Robert McNamara was thinking in The Best and the Brightest, by David Halberstam.

Catastrophic Thinking, using CAVEAT, will be featured in three books I hope to write. When Antarctica Melts, The Foolish Quests, and Plan C-Applying CAVEAT to Policy Formation, will all build upon the essential concepts introduced on this Website.

Catastrophic Thinking, using CAVEAT, requires policies to be resilient in times of adversity. One crucial concern about resilience is continuity of government. To make our government survivable we need to set up a new duplicate capital such as Lincoln, W.D.C. to complement our eastern capital, Washington, E.D.C.

Catastrophic Thinking, using CAVEAT, requires policies to be resilient and be able to rebuild from catastrophes. In much smaller events, called disasters, we use insurance, both public and private. Insurance will go bankrupt in a catastrophe, so in Plan C we should just suspend insurance coverages and let the losses fall where they may.

Catastrophic Thinking, using CAVEAT, requires policies to be sustainable in periods of scarcity. We should address all shortages we know about now, in times of plenty, because more will be identified in a crisis. Water, for example, is becoming a crisis because we are pumping out ground water and sinking our coastal cities.

Catastrophic Thinking, using CAVEAT, requires policies that allow for escape from danger. The difference between disasters and catastrophes is that no one will come rescue you in a catastrophe. Everyone needs to be trained in how to save themselves.

Catastrophic Thinking, using CAVEAT, requires policies to be fully funded. Government must only budget based on the revenues collected in the previous year. A balanced budget amendment to the Constitution is needed because government has proven incapable of doing it. Also amortize the National Debt.

Catastrophic Thinking, using CAVEAT, requires policies to be fully funded, and yet also encourage capital formation. Make dividends deductible to corporations and instead remove deductions for any compensation in excess of what the Vice President makes, thereby increasing corporate tax revenue.

Catastrophic Thinking, using CAVEAT, requires policies to be there when you rely on them. Social Security tax revenues are shrinking while the demand is increasing. Impose a 10% use tax on strategic assets to fund social security. Also stop using social security to fund the general deficit, but instead invest the funds in public works.

Catastrophic Thinking, using CAVEAT, requires policies that identify what are strategic assets and system vulnerabilities and then design policies to address them. Strategic assets include water, the electric grid, utilities, the interstate highway system, farmland, crossing the border, and medicine supplies.

Catastrophic Thinking, using CAVEAT, requires that we seek moderation and develop a consensus so we can quickly implement policies. Without consensus we can never address global warming.

Catastrophic Thinking, using CAVEAT, requires thinking ahead before policies become political. This is the Art of Thinking. It is easier to reach a consensus before selfish interest groups stake out a position. An example is like Clones should be treated as a form of procreation of separate human beings with separate rights for those of us created the old-fashioned way. Clones cannot be slaves.