Twelve Tools of CAVEAT

A big part of Catastrophic Thinking is to employ the twelve tools of Catastrophic Assumptions, Values, and Expectations in Analysis and Thinking when designing public policies. The poster featured here is available at the Store page. It lists the twelve tools for a quick reminder. The twelve tools will be explained in great detail on this site and in the Essential Concepts Videos™ Series. Obviously, we should assume scarcity and adversity. Obviously, we should lower our expectations of what the government will do for you when it is destroyed. Obviously, when confronted with a catastrophe or any contagion, and resources are scarce, the first responders and essential personnel should receive the resources first, contrary to our American values to treat all alike. Thinking back is obvious: thinking again is not. After any experience or false alarm, we should carefully examine the policy for what went right and what went wrong, improving the policy where it fell short. Thus any policy should incorporate audits, re-examinations, and oversight into the policy process. Objecting to oversight and review makes the objector look bad, well, actually guilty. Objecting to oversight, audit, and review breeds distrust and destroys credibility. Witness the 2020 elections for example.

Probably the oldest recorded example of Catastrophic Thinking comes from the Bible. When I was first reading the book of Exodus back in Sunday School, I came across a curious passage when Paroah changed his mind. No explanation was given except his heart was hardened. This has puzzled me all my life until the Covid 19 pandemic struck. Then I understood. The wisdom of the Bible is not always obvious. Allow me to explain. The passages can be found in Exodus 14:4-5 as follows;

(God speaking) “And I will harden Pharaoh’s heart and he will pursue them and I will get glory over Pharoah and all his host.” … When the king of Egypt was told that the (Israelites) had fled, and the (Egyptians) said, “What is it we have done, that we have let Israel go from serving us?””

Catastrophic Thinking advises us to look at a problem from all perspectives. Let us examine the Exodus story from the Pharoah’s perspective. His country has undergone a series of catastrophic plagues; the livestock are dead; and the crops have failed. There is not enough food for everyone. So the Pharoah cynically grants the Israelites their “freedom” so they can go out into the desert and die of starvation. (They would have, too, but for the miracle of the manna, which is another story). But then Paroah realizes that the crops need to be replanted and someone has to tend to the flocks and herds so that the food supply can be restored, based on governing for resilience and sustainability. Who was going to perform those essential functions? Certainly not the linen-clad sons of Egypt, who were raised primarily as spear fodder. The obvious solution was to forcibly bring back the recently-freed slaves, who alone possessed the essential skills for a sustainable agriculture. So that is what Pharaoh decided to do. (spoiler alert: But God wasn’t done performing His Acts of God yet.) Too late, the Pharoah learned about catastrophic thinking and who is truly essential.

This blog is dedicated to discussing your ideas about the twelve tools of caveat and how they support catastrophic analysis.