The Essential Concepts Videos series will be hosted on a YouTube Channel CAVEAT MIND and stored on a website named Catastrophic Thinking, domain name essentialconceptsinc.com  The first few videos will explain some of the underlying essential concepts which are used in  CATASTROPHIC THINKING.  This third introductory video will introduce catastrophism as applied to probability theory.

Policy formation ignores events with remote probabilities of occurring, also known as black swans.  Probability Theory creates artificial limits on our thinking.  One of the keys of catastrophic thinking is to think outside the box.  This video examines the three types of boxes which are imposed on our thinking by Probability Theory.  The gambler’s fallacy is one; rules of adding probabilities of two or more events is the other.  The third is letting our emotions control our response to a catastrophe.  This video explains the pitfalls of these three concepts in relation to public policy formation.